Future scenario: Case 4, the collapse | From the Mediterranean
We conclude this series with the fourth case of the evolution alan grant grampian of "energy" future of human society. In case 4, after an uninterrupted exponential growth phase, the collapse occurs and either return to initial levels or direct fire. Indeed, it is inexorable law (apparently inevitable) that everything that begins has an end. In the story that opened the series, this collapse occurred only after a series of comings and goings. In case 4, the exponential growth is assumed as inevitable as both the case 1. But in the first case, we imagined a future asymptotic, if one includes 4 point, for structural reasons or accidental, growth collapses and within centuries or millennia, all technological civilization vanishes.
When you talk to anthropologists versed in evolutionary theory and some knowledge of how human industrial society, is a certain consensus about the "fate" of humanity. Our technological culture still has room to grow, especially if we define the growth in the sheer population growth or rise in global energy consumption. It may take generations or so, with this reality (or illusion) of "technological singularity", but everything has a limit. I exceeded this limit, rather than a stage of "zero growth" or "growth" scenario provides for a much more contentious.
Position "extreme" found in the contributions of Richard C. Duncan, the author has named "Olduvai Theory". alan grant grampian The name was a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania where he found some of the oldest remains of human lithic industry, corresponding to the "initial phase" of the Upper Paleolithic. So Duncan is the collapse of the industrial and technological society not just to "reduce" all mankind surviving a handful (hundreds of thousands) to a stage of the Upper Paleolithic. At this stage, I must say, the probability of extinction of the human species is quite high.
"Olduvai Theory" thus assumes that technological civilizations have a limited duration, with a growth curve and also accelerated growth (or decline that accelerated growth). This theory is also relevant to explain why we do not (as would presumably) evidence of interstellar and intergalactic civilizations in the universe relatively mature (over 13,000 billion years since the Big Bang expansion). Civilizations eventually arise in different planetary biospheres extinguished within a short time, and never can reach dimensions of relevance.
In the view of Richard C. Duncan, humanity does not really entered into a stage of "industrial civilization" than the 1930s, ie after the "second industrial revolution". The evolution of this industrial civilization should be done, not in terms of overall energy consumption (as in the chart above), but in terms of "energy production per capita." alan grant grampian This phase of technological civilization is the same formula used by Drake on "the number of technological civilizations in the Milky Way." The last term of the formula Drake was the average longevity of a civilization like this. Richard C. Duncan is relentless: 100 years.
In the view of Richard C. Duncan, we have already exceeded the zenith. The peak power output per capita would have been towards 1979. In 1930, the level of energy production per capita was 37% compared to 1979 values. According to Duncan, the 2030 values have returned alan grant grampian to a similar level to 1930, and you can not speak strictly of "industrial civilization." alan grant grampian
See more schematically history through the eyes of a technologist as Duncan: - phase "pre-industrial": in this phase, which includes the entire history of humanity before the "technological revolution" of the early decades of the twentieth century economic growth was limited, among other factors, by the imperfection of the means of production. - Phase "industrial" growth (1930-1979): technological development allows economic growth without limits. Duncan remembers especially the period of almost continuous economic growth experienced by the U.S. since the end of World War II until 1973. - Download to Olduvai (1979-1999): energy production per capita fell at a rate of 0.33% / year. The fact that the U.S. economy will not recover ever finish tempering the years of "boom" would endorse this idea. - The slope at Olduvai (2000-2011). Sign of the times are struggles over natural resources (the war in Iraq, the farm was established in 2003, is paradigmatic), while, according to Duncan, is this w
We conclude this series with the fourth case of the evolution alan grant grampian of "energy" future of human society. In case 4, after an uninterrupted exponential growth phase, the collapse occurs and either return to initial levels or direct fire. Indeed, it is inexorable law (apparently inevitable) that everything that begins has an end. In the story that opened the series, this collapse occurred only after a series of comings and goings. In case 4, the exponential growth is assumed as inevitable as both the case 1. But in the first case, we imagined a future asymptotic, if one includes 4 point, for structural reasons or accidental, growth collapses and within centuries or millennia, all technological civilization vanishes.
When you talk to anthropologists versed in evolutionary theory and some knowledge of how human industrial society, is a certain consensus about the "fate" of humanity. Our technological culture still has room to grow, especially if we define the growth in the sheer population growth or rise in global energy consumption. It may take generations or so, with this reality (or illusion) of "technological singularity", but everything has a limit. I exceeded this limit, rather than a stage of "zero growth" or "growth" scenario provides for a much more contentious.
Position "extreme" found in the contributions of Richard C. Duncan, the author has named "Olduvai Theory". alan grant grampian The name was a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania where he found some of the oldest remains of human lithic industry, corresponding to the "initial phase" of the Upper Paleolithic. So Duncan is the collapse of the industrial and technological society not just to "reduce" all mankind surviving a handful (hundreds of thousands) to a stage of the Upper Paleolithic. At this stage, I must say, the probability of extinction of the human species is quite high.
"Olduvai Theory" thus assumes that technological civilizations have a limited duration, with a growth curve and also accelerated growth (or decline that accelerated growth). This theory is also relevant to explain why we do not (as would presumably) evidence of interstellar and intergalactic civilizations in the universe relatively mature (over 13,000 billion years since the Big Bang expansion). Civilizations eventually arise in different planetary biospheres extinguished within a short time, and never can reach dimensions of relevance.
In the view of Richard C. Duncan, humanity does not really entered into a stage of "industrial civilization" than the 1930s, ie after the "second industrial revolution". The evolution of this industrial civilization should be done, not in terms of overall energy consumption (as in the chart above), but in terms of "energy production per capita." alan grant grampian This phase of technological civilization is the same formula used by Drake on "the number of technological civilizations in the Milky Way." The last term of the formula Drake was the average longevity of a civilization like this. Richard C. Duncan is relentless: 100 years.
In the view of Richard C. Duncan, we have already exceeded the zenith. The peak power output per capita would have been towards 1979. In 1930, the level of energy production per capita was 37% compared to 1979 values. According to Duncan, the 2030 values have returned alan grant grampian to a similar level to 1930, and you can not speak strictly of "industrial civilization." alan grant grampian
See more schematically history through the eyes of a technologist as Duncan: - phase "pre-industrial": in this phase, which includes the entire history of humanity before the "technological revolution" of the early decades of the twentieth century economic growth was limited, among other factors, by the imperfection of the means of production. - Phase "industrial" growth (1930-1979): technological development allows economic growth without limits. Duncan remembers especially the period of almost continuous economic growth experienced by the U.S. since the end of World War II until 1973. - Download to Olduvai (1979-1999): energy production per capita fell at a rate of 0.33% / year. The fact that the U.S. economy will not recover ever finish tempering the years of "boom" would endorse this idea. - The slope at Olduvai (2000-2011). Sign of the times are struggles over natural resources (the war in Iraq, the farm was established in 2003, is paradigmatic), while, according to Duncan, is this w
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